14 Markets That Have Fully Recovered from the COVID-19 Recession

According to Yardi Matrix’s April 2021 bulletin, “roughly one out of every 14 multifamily properties in the US has seen occupancy rates drop by 5% or more over the last 12 months.” 7.3% of multifamily properties experienced a 5% or more decrease in occupancy, and 1.8% experienced a 10% or more drop in the last 12 months.

Understandably, occupancy in large urban areas was impacted the most. Leading the pack was New York City where 32.6% of properties experienced a 5% or more decrease in occupancy and 9.8% experienced a 10% or more decrease in occupancy.

Nationally, multifamily occupancy is down 0.2% year-over-year. Since many of the large urban metros aren’t expected to return to pre-pandemic occupancy levels for five or more years, Yardi Matrix predicts that the national occupancy rate will not recover until Q2 of 2024.

Now for the good news.

National rents have already recovered. National rents are now 0.6% greater than pre-pandemic rents. Also, 14 metros have occupancy levels and rents above pre-pandemic levels – either because they’ve fully recovered or weren’t impacted enough by the pandemic. Here are those markets:

1. Raleigh, NC

  • Occupancy change YOY: 0.1%
  • Rent change YOY: 0.5%

2. Portland, OR

  • Occupancy change YOY: 0.3%
  • Rent change YOY: 1.7%

3. Phoenix, AZ

  • Occupancy change YOY:0.4 %
  • Rent change YOY: 6.9%

4. Denver, CO

  • Occupancy change YOY: 0.0%
  • Rent change YOY: 0.4%

5. Indianapolis, IN

  • Occupancy change YOY: 0.6%
  • Rent change YOY: 3.9%

6. Philadelphia, PA

  • Occupancy change YOY: 0.2%
  • Rent change YOY: 3.4%

7. Baltimore, MD

  • Occupancy change YOY: 0.9%
  • Rent change YOY: 3.8%

8. Orange County, CA

  • Occupancy change YOY: 0.3%
  • Rent change YOY: 1.0%

9. Sacramento, CA

  • Occupancy change YOY: 1.1%
  • Rent change YOY: 7.3%

10. Las Vegas, NV

  • Occupancy change YOY: 1.4%
  • Rent change YOY: 6.1%

11. Atlanta, GA

  • Occupancy change YOY: 1.1%
  • Rent change YOY: 4.7%

12. Tampa, FL

  • Occupancy change YOY: 0.9%
  • Rent change YOY: 5.0%

13. Charlotte, NC

  • Occupancy change YOY: 0.5%
  • Rent change YOY: 2.7%

14. Inland Empire, CA

  • Occupancy change YOY: 2.2%
  • Rent change YOY: 8.3%

 

Other markets to note:

  • Dallas: Rents have fully recovered and occupancy is projected to recover in Q2 of this year. In a sense, Dallas also has fully recovered.
  • Houston: Rents and occupancy are expected to fully recover by the end of 2021.
  • Twin Cities, Nashville, Kansas City: Rents have fully recovered but occupancy isn’t expected to recover for at least a few years (5+ years for the Twin Cities, Q4 2023 for Nashville, and Q4 2024 for Kansas City).
  • New York, San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Orlando: Occupancy isn’t expected to fully recover for more than five years.

Click here to review the full bulletin from Yardi Matrix to see if the market you invest in has fully recovered from the COVID-19 recession.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this blog post are provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or to make or consider any investment or course of action.

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Joe Fairless